Gloomy Netflix forecast erases much of stock’s pandemic gains

LOS ANGELES (REUTERS) – Netflix dashed hopes for a quick rebound after forecasting weak first-quarter subscriber growth on Thursday (Jan 20).

The news sent its shares sinking nearly 20 per cent, wiping away most of its remaining pandemic-fuelled gains from 2020.

The world's largest streaming service projected it would add 2.5 million customers from January to March, less than half of the 5.9 million that analysts had forecast, according to Refinitiv IBES data.

Netflix tempered its growth expectations, citing the late arrival of anticipated content, such as the second season of Bridgerton, and the film The Adam Project.

Shares of Netflix plummeted nearly 20 per cent to US$408.13 in after-hours trading. Competitor Walt Disney Co, which has staked its future on building a strong streaming business, saw its shares sink 4 per cent. Streaming device Roku fell 5 per cent.

Netflix added 8.3 million customers from October to December, when it released a heavy line-up of new programming, including star-studded movies Red Notice and Don't Look Up and a new season of The Witcher. Industry analysts had projected 8.4 million.

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The company's global subscriber total at the end of 2021 reached 221.8 million.

In a letter to shareholders, Netflix said it believed the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic and economic hardships in several parts of the world like Latin America may have kept subscriber growth from rebounding to levels seen before the pandemic.

The company posted adjusted earnings per share of US$1.33, crushing analyst consensus estimates of 82 cents. Revenue hit US$7.71 billion (S$10.4 billion), in line with estimates.

Netflix last week raised prices in its biggest market, the United States and Canada, where analysts say growth is stagnating, and is now looking for growth overseas.

The company rode a roller coaster during the pandemic, with steep growth early in 2020 when people were staying home and movie theatres were closed, followed by a slowdown in 2021. Netflix picked up more than 36 million customers in 2020, and 18.2 million in 2021.

Netflix's subscriber growth in 2022 had been expected to stabilise and return to the pace logged before the pandemic, when it added 27.9 million subscribers in 2019, analysts say. The company's upcoming slate includes new instalments of Ozark and Stranger Things and a three-part Kanye West documentary.

But competitors, including Disney and AT&T's HBO Max, are pouring billions into creating new programming to grab a share of the streaming market.

Artmotion Asia

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